The new Gorton and Denton constituency was formed in July 2024 following a boundary review, and Andrew Gwynne, the previous MP for the old Denton and Reddish seat, won an unsurprising majority for Labour with 50.8% of the vote.
Since then, a lot has changed. Gwynne was caught up in a scandal over unsavoury comments in a Labour WhatsApp group, and was suspended from the party in February 2025. He sat as an independent until his resignation as an MP last month.
Alongside the misfortunes of Gwynne, and the Labour Party in general, Reform and the Greens have been on the rise. For Reform, this has been driven by increased mainstream media attention on Reform UK and their fellow right-wing travellers.
New and Old constituency boundaries in Gorton and Denton
Similarly, left-wing media has focussed on the increased popularity of the Greens, particularly among the younger, more progressive voters that inhabit the Gorton half of the constituency.
Both of the old seats were solidly Labour from 1983 to 2024, the period over which the two seats co-existed – but perhaps for different reasons. Manchester Gorton was more diverse and contained a larger proportion of students, whereas Denton and Reddish contained more traditional, older working-class Labour voters.
Labour vote share follows the same pattern in the former constituencies, but the numbers are higher in Gorton
Many former Labour voters are rejecting the party for different reasons – so we are told – but will that be reflected in the polling today? We are led to believe that Gorton will vote Green and Denton will choose Reform, but is it that simple?
The merging of two demographically different constituencies might lead to a split vote – some are describing it as a three-horse race – but this relies on traditional Labour voter groups behaving in the way they are ‘supposed’ to. By tomorrow morning, we will have a winner, and there will probably be more of interest in the breakdown of the vote. Whoever wins Gorton and Denton, there will be lessons for Labour to learn. But will they?
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Featured image: Google Maps
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